Friday, March 17, 2023

Guinness Six Nations 2023 Round 6 - Super Saturday - Could it get any better?

Final weekend of the 2023 Guinness Six Nations – Super Saturday and Rugby Raconteur starts with an apology. Due to work and travel pressures, it was not possible to do a preview for Round 4 and we sadly will have a truncated preview for Round 5.


Round 4 had some fantastic encounters and went pretty much to script with Ireland winning against a spirited Scotland; Wales overcoming the Italians in Rome and France winning “Le Crunch” at Twickenham. The manner of those wins was a surprise in the ease of victory.

 

At Murrayfield, Scotland’s physicality battered Ireland and the Bravehearts would have been comfortable with just a one-point deficit at half time. Ireland's lead was just one point when Ronan Kelleher joined fellow hooker Dan Sheehan on the side lines, forcing Cian Healy into the middle of the front row and Josh van der Flier to take on lineout throwing duties, yet Scotland did not put extra pressure on those in makeshift roles and ultimately failed to score a single point after their 16th-minute converted try put them in the lead. Unfortunately, in the second half unforced errors at critical times let Ireland into win the game. 

 

Wales were outplayed in many facets in Rome but never looked like losing to the Azzurri. They looked confident on the warmup and some outstanding individual performances through Rhys Webb and Justin Tipuric saw them win enough possession and show a ruthless streak such that the game was over as a contest by half time. 

 

Both teams had lost all their matches going into that one, while Italy had home advantage and had beaten Wales in Cardiff the previous year. A sluggish start from the hosts in Rome enabled Wales to build a lead which they rarely looked in danger of surrendering enroute to a much-needed 29-17 triumph.

 

The final score line did not tell the full story of the match, with Italy carrying for 795 metres to Wales’s 479 and making a tournament-high 11 line breaks compared with just four for Wales - the most line breaks Italy have ever made against a Tier 1 nation since that data is available from 2010.

 

At HQ, England capitulated to a 53-10 defeat to France, the hosts suffering their worst-ever defeat at Twickenham.

 

Having posted a morale-boosting win in Wales last time out, England would have been optimistic about toppling a France side that showed vulnerability against Scotland two weeks ago.

 

However, Steve Borthwick's side were ruthlessly torn apart by one of their fierce rivals, the tone being set when the first of seven tries from the visitors was posted in just the second minute.

 

Can Scotland bounce back to finish strongly against Italy? Can England spoil Ireland’s party and let Les Bleus through to win the title? Can Wales raise their standards even further and frighten France in Paris?

 

Let’s find out:

 

SCOTLAND v ITALY

 

Scotland may well look back on the 2023 Six Nations Championship as a missed opportunity to make history with a team that has been lauded as the best in generations of Scottish rugby.

 

Both teams have impressed at various stages throughout the tournament but still come into the final match with slightly underwhelming records and knowing that this weekend's result could ultimately determine whether their campaign has been a good one or a bad one.

 

It seems like a long time ago that Duhan van der Merwe sliced through the England defence enroute to another famous win at Twickenham - a result which, unlike in previous years, was then followed up by victory over Wales in match two.

 

However, since those two maximum-point hauls, Gregor Townsend's men have lost back-to-back matches against France and Ireland respectively, ending their hopes of a first title since 1999, and a first-ever in the Six Nations era.

 

Losing to the two best teams in the world is neither shocking nor shameful for anyone, yet alone a Scottish side that has not seriously challenged the top of the Six Nations table this century, but their current crop are so good that there will still be a wistful sense of what might have been.

 

Never was that more true than last weekend against Ireland, who lost a string of key players to injury - including both of their hookers - yet still managed to power on in the second half for a 22-7 win at Murrayfield.

 

For all the positives from this year's tournament, Scotland know that defeat at home to Italy this weekend would leave them with a losing record and that the 2023 campaign will ultimately be looked back on as a failure.

 

However, they will be firm favourites to make it three Six Nations wins in a season for the fifth time in the last seven editions, and to finish in the top half for the first time since 2018.

 

Considering they had managed a winning record in just one of their 17 campaigns before that, it is important to recognise the progress Scotland have made in recent years, but the next jump to four wins and beyond has once again proved elusive this time around.

 

Victories also remain elusive for Italy, who like Scotland have produced plenty of encouraging performances, but who now find themselves staring down the barrel of an eighth successive Wooden Spoon, and an 18th from their 24 years in the Championship.

 

There is still hope for the Azzurri to avoid that fate, but defeat to Wales last time out means that they would need to beat Scotland in this game and then hope that Wales lose to France to leapfrog Warren Gatland's side back into the heady heights of fourth.

 

With Scotland missing key players and France needing a big win to stand any chance of winning the title, that combination of results cannot be ruled out, but realistically last weekend's home match against Wales seemed like Italy's best chance to pick up a rare victory.

 

Once again, then, there were underlying causes for optimism, but that was also true in the defeats to France, England, and Ireland, and sooner or later Italy will need to start turning their promise into points, as the wider picture still looks bleak.

Italy have now lost 40 of their last 41 Six Nations matches and, although the exception in that run came away from home on the final day of last year's Championship, it would take a major shock for them to repeat that feat at Murrayfield on Saturday.

 

Scotland will have to make do without their two main star men for this match, with Finn Russell and new centurion Stuart Hogg both picking up injuries against Ireland.

 

Blair Kinghorn comes back into the fold in place of Russell at 10. The versatile Edinburgh back last started at 10 for the national team in October, against Australia, and has not started in the playmaker’s role for his club this year. 

 

With Stuart Hogg also out injured, Ollie Smith is at full-back to face the Italians, his first involvement in this year’s championship. The other two changes are in the pack. Richie Gray has not made it after suffering rib damage against Ireland and Sam Skinner starts in the second row alongside Jonny Gray, preferred to Scott Cummings who replaced Richie Gray last Sunday and is named again among the substitutes. There is a return to the starting XV for Hamish Watson, with Matt Fagerson dropping to the bench. Watson is at openside flanker, with captain Jamie Ritchie reverting to blindside and Jack Dempsey retaining the No 8 jersey.

 

It’s all change on the bench where Ben Healy is in line to win his first cap. The Munster stand-off recently switched allegiance from Ireland and qualifies for Scotland through his maternal grandparents. 

 

The front-row replacements are Ewan Ashman, Rory Sutherland, and WP Nel, with the former two set to get their first taste of action in this Six Nations. There should also be a first outing of the campaign for Cameron Redpath who is preferred to Chris Harris as the replacement centre.

 

Italy have also made four changes to their starting XV, with head coach Kieran Crowley handing a debut to Simone Gesi on the left wing who comes in for Edoardo Padovani, with Pierre Bruno switching from left wing to right, and Alessandro Fusco comes in for Stephen Varney at scrum half.

 

In the forwards, Edoardo Iachizzi and Marco Riccioni come back in to front up against the formidable Scottish pack.

 

Scotland are aiming for their twelfth consecutive win against Italy – this would take this streak out on its own as the dark blues’ longest run of victories against any nation in Test history.

 

During the Six Nations, Italy have gained 2,415 metres through kicking the ball – by far the lowest return for any team in the tournament. That’s more than a kilometre less than Scotland and 1.7km less than France and England who are within 2 metres of each other at the top of the table for this stat.

 

Every other team in the championship has gained more ground from kicks than they have through carrying the ball. Italy have made nearly 800m more running than they do kicking. The commitment to their attacking shape is admirable but not playing the percentages on a regular basis has put them in defensive trouble on more than one occasion.

 

Scotland will need to be on their guard though. Fewer kicks mean fewer counter-attacking opportunities of their own for one thing. The Azzurri’s willingness to test defences has also seen them find holes to flood through, particularly when exploiting some ropy midfield defence against Wales. The Huwipulotu partnership has drawn plenty of plaudits for their attacking flair, but they have also combined for 78 tackles at a completion rate of 88%. They will need to be on the money again on Saturday.

 

Despite Italy having a poor recent record against Scotland, they have still managed to score three or more tries in three of the last five meetings, so we could be in for an entertaining start to Six Nations Super Saturday.

Scotland are missing their two best players and so will be relieved that they only must cope without Russell and Hogg in the easiest match on paper in the tournament, although their absence does raise the chance of an upset.

Even so, we expect the hosts to end a largely positive tournament on a high and to secure a top-three finish in the process, while consigning Italy to yet another Wooden Spoon.

 

SCOTLAND 33 ITALY 21

 

FRANCE V WALES


France host Wales in Paris, with Fabien GalthiĆ©’s side still hoping to retain the title they won last year. Warren Gatland has avoided the wooden spoon but now faces a very tricky finale. France looked fired-up at Twickenham and will want to back up that performance in their final competitive fixture before a home World Cup.

 

However, for France to become the first country since England in 2017 to retain the title, they must secure a try-bonus point win and hope Ireland lose without a bonus-point against Steve Borthwick’s side at the Aviva Stadium.

 

For so long an unhappy hunting ground for them, Rugby HQ proved to be a bountiful treasure trove of tries for Les Bleus this time around as they crushed England in Le Crunch.

 

The first of their seven tries came in the very first minute, setting the tone for an utterly one-sided contest which France eventually won 53-10 - England's heaviest home defeat in their entire history, and France's joint-biggest Six Nations victory against any opposition, equalling a 56-13 triumph over Italy in 2005.

 

To do that away to their biggest rivals, having not won at Twickenham for 18 years before that, was a result for the ages, with a performance to match as France were fearless and flawless enroute to what must rank as one of the greatest displays of any team in Six Nations history.

 

Indeed, the only minor blot on the victory, at least when it is looked back on in years to come, is that it is likely to be meaningless in the Six Nations title race - although it did at least take the defence of their crown to the final weekend.

 

Turmoil off the pitch for much of the campaign has overshadowed some poor performances on it too, with Warren Gatland's side finding themselves in an effective Wooden Spoon decider in Rome last weekend.

 

Wales did at least avoid defeat there, running out 29-17 winners, but there were still worrying signs as Italy carried for far more metres and made a tournament-high 11 line breaks, beating the previous highest tally for this year's Championship which occurred in Scotland's win over Wales in round two.

 

A trip to a French side that was so devastating in attack last weekend is the last thing they need, then, and with a worse points difference than Italy, any defeat would still see them claim the unwanted Wooden Spoon for the first time since 2003 if the Azzurri can beat Scotland in Edinburgh earlier in the day.

 

Gatland will be hoping that the off-field issues are now behind his team, though, and with a first win of his second spell under their belt, they can now begin to look forward after a far more clinical display against Italy.

 

Wales scored tries from three of their four-line breaks in Rome, which is a far cry from their opening three games when their failure to turn visits to the 22 into points proved to be their biggest weakness.

 

Even so, having lost six Six Nations games on the bounce before that win over Italy last weekend, it would take a major shock for them to topple France and win back-to-back games in this competition for the first time since claiming the Grand Slam in 2021.

 

Defeat would mean that they have lost at least four of their five games in back-to-back Championships, something which has not happened since 2002 and 2003.

 

Liam Williams has been ruled out of the Wales team due to a shoulder injury. The full back was hurt during the 29-17 victory over Italy, having earlier scored a superb solo try.

 

Hooker Scott Baldwin, meanwhile, is also unavailable for the Stade de France encounter because of a pectoral muscle issue. Ospreys hooker Sam Parry has been called into the squad.

 

Another week, another roll of the dice and another much-changed Wales team.

 

We have reached the stage where the words ‘Gatland’ and ‘shake-up’ are fast losing the power to surprise. But another six changes it is for the game with France in Paris, following on from six for the date with Italy, nine for the match against England and a further six for the date with Scotland.

 

That's 27 changes since the opening day selection versus Ireland.

 

Head coach Warren Gatland has made six changes from the team that defeated Italy as he reverts to experience.

 

There are recalls for fly-half Dan Biggar, centres George North and Nick Tompkins and lock Alun Wyn Jones. Toulon fly-half Biggar missed the Italy victory with a bad back but returns at the expense of Owen Williams.

 

Biggar, 33, will rekindle his old Ospreys half-back partnership with Rhys Webb, player of the match in Rome last weekend.

 

The world's most-capped player Jones, 37, replaces 20-year-old Dafydd Jenkins to pack down in the second row with Adam Beard.

 

North and Tompkins replace the centre pairing of Joe Hawkins and Mason Grady, the two 20-year-olds who started the past two games.

It is a first start in this year's tournament for Saracens centre Tompkins while Grady and Hawkins miss out on the 23-man squad altogether.

 

Whilst Grady and Hawkins might well be Wales’s future centre pairing; they made just too many mistakes and missed tackles against Italy. The centres have not worked so far, they didn't look like internationals in the regions, and no magical transformation has occurred when capped.

 

Louis Rees-Zammit also returns to the starting side at full-back in place of injured Liam Williams while Aaron Wainwright replaces Jac Morgan. Wainwright makes his first appearance of the tournament, while Rees-Zammit makes his third Wales start at full-back with Leigh Halfpenny named as a replacement.

 

Captain Ken Owens is named as the starting hooker with Bradley Roberts as replacement and Sam Parry in France as cover.

 

Taulupe Faletau will win his 100th Wales cap against France in Paris. Number eight Faletau, 32, will become the eighth member of an exclusive Welsh club that comprises North, Biggar, Alun Wyn Jones, Gethin Jenkins, Stephen Jones, Gareth Thomas, and Martyn Williams.

 

France still has ambitions to retain their Six Nations title if they can defeat Wales and Grand Slam-chasing Ireland slip up at home to England.

 

Fabien Galthie has made two changes with prop Uini Atonio returning from suspension to replace Dorian Aldegheri and lock Romain Taofifenua coming in for the injured Paul Willemse.

 

Bastien Chalureau is on the bench instead of Taofifenua.


Wales can’t allow France to enjoy a steady flow of possession and they need the forwards and particularly Alun Wyn Jones to disrupt and help cut the supply line. It will not be easy, but international rugby isn’t easy. The plus is no-one will have a clearer idea of what’s required than world rugby’s cap record holder.

 

Wales’s biggest problem is lack of carrying in front 5. So far this tournament there has been no dynamism, organisation, or taking the ball at pace. Wales are far the worse in the tournament for that. They also have the slowest ruck speed, probably not unconnected.

 

I thought Wales showed better ball presentation against Italy. They know it's a significant issue, but much work remains to be done.

 

Gatland has picked a team to try get France into tedious a slug fest whilst probably hoping it'll rain chats et chiens.

 

There's huge pressure on the French team, not only to win, but win well and start the World Cup party. Facing an experienced, street wise, risk-free defensive side is probably not the fixture they'd particularly want.

 

I think that's this is the best Welsh side available for this encounter. This isn't a game to develop people. Players don't develop in a game where they are totally outclassed, they drown. People are saying this side is there to keep the score down, well if the cap fits wear it, what's the other option, get slaughtered? AWJ is not the future, but he is still the best second row in Wales even though he is not the player he was. 

 

Dan Biggar’s return is a no-brainer - his experience and defensive qualities are badly needed. The pack can look each other in the eye, and all know they have been there and done it before. Wales will need France to have a bad day at the office to even keep it respectable, but this is not a game to play build from, they need to circle the wagons.

 

Brighter times should be ahead for Wales now that they have the second Gatland era up and running, but this match looks a stretch too far for them.

France will be flying after their Twickenham trouncing of England and know that only a win - and ideally a big one - would be enough to keep their title hopes alive and put the pressure on Ireland.

Wales’s defence was cut open all too often by Italy last time out, so this French backline could do some real damage as well.

 

FRANCE 37 WALES 10

 

IRELAND v ENGLAND

 

The grand finale of the 2023 Six Nations sees England cross the Irish sea to face Grand Slam-chasing Ireland in Dublin.  Ireland’s fans and players will be looking to clear their hangovers and will be aiming to adorn St Patrick's weekend with Grand Slam glory on home soil.

 

Andy Farrell's men know that victory will give them just a fourth-ever Grand Slam in this competition, but England will be looking to spoil the party with their own motive of redemption following a record defeat last time out.

 

With their status as world number one and regular recent victories over New Zealand, it is easy to forget that Ireland are relative newcomers at the very top table of international rugby.

 

None of the original five nations to compete in the previous form of this tournament has won the Grand Slam on fewer occasions than Ireland, putting into even sharper focus the scale of the achievement that they find themselves on the brink of this weekend.

 

Victory over England would give them their first title and Grand Slam since 2018, and only their fourth clean sweep in Five or Six Nations history, so Dublin will be gearing up for an almighty party this weekend.

 

With St Patrick's Day itself falling on Friday, Irish fans would be forgiven for starting their celebrations early having seen England obliterated by France at Twickenham last weekend.

 

However, the line from the Irish camp from immediately after their victory over Scotland last weekend was one of caution regarding an England response, and any slip-up this weekend would not only cost them a Grand Slam and Triple Crown but could also see them miss out on the title should France beat Wales by a big enough margin earlier in the day.

 

There is still a job to complete for Farrell's side, then, but there have been precious few signs to suggest that they might fall short of that throughout this year's tournament.

 

Bonus-point wins over Wales, France and Italy left them with a perfect record after three games and, while they failed to pick up the bonus point against Scotland last weekend, that 22-7 triumph is arguably the one which will give Farrell the most satisfaction.

 

The win at Murrayfield was a seventh in a row for Ireland in the Six Nations, and another this weekend would see them create one more slice of history by winning eight on the bounce in the competition for the first time.

 

Those of a superstitious persuasion could draw parallels between Ireland's seven-match winning streak and England being about as far away from seventh heaven as it is possible to get last weekend, when in their 777th Test match they shipped seven tries for only the seventh time in their history.

 

There were no redeeming features from their humiliating and humbling home defeat at the hands of France, with the final score line of 53-10 being England's heaviest-ever defeat on home turf and their heaviest-ever Six Nations loss home or away.

It was an emphatic way for France to record their first away win in Le Crunch for 18 years and, while Fabien Galthie's side were irresistible at times, England were equally as bad, and it was a loss embarrassing enough to raise questions over Steve Borthwick just four games into his new job.

 

On paper, an away trip to the world's top-ranked side chasing a Grand Slam is the worst possible follow-up to such a low point, with the prospect of similar misery being inflicted now looking very realistic.

 

However, Borthwick will no doubt be urging his players to relish their rare role as overwhelming underdogs, and the players themselves will be desperate to prove that their chastening experience at Twickenham was just one very bad day at the office.

 

The pressure will all be on Ireland, whereas England arrive in Dublin with very little to lose and would love to play the party-pooper role.

 

Victory would also ensure that England at least end an up-and-down campaign with a winning record, although their current standing of fourth in the Six Nations table is probably a fair reflection of where they stand in the Northern Hemisphere pecking order ahead of the World Cup later this year.

 

As if the prospect of winning a Grand Slam, Six Nations title and Triple Crown in Dublin on St Patrick's weekend was not enough, Irish fans are also almost certain to see their talisman Johnny Sexton bid farewell to the Six Nations stage by becoming the leading points-scorer in the competition's history.

 

Sexton kicked seven points in the win over Scotland last weekend to leave him dead level with compatriot Ronan O'Gara as the all-time leading scorers, so any score will see him move out on his own in his final appearance in the competition before he retires after this year's World Cup.

 

There is a new partner in the half-backs for him, though, with Jamison Gibson-Park chosen at nine ahead of Conor Murray, who drops to the bench.

 

Garry Ringrose's worrying withdrawal in a neck brace last weekend means that he misses this game through injury, being replaced by Robbie Henshaw in the centre, while Ireland's third and final change is also an enforced one as Ryan Baird replaces Henderson in the second row.

 

Those two injury changes are better than first feared, though, with Doris and Sheehan both passed fit to start.

 

Rob Herring is the new replacement hooker on the bench with Kelleher missing out through injury, while Kieran Treadwell and Jimmy O'Brien also come into the matchday 23.

 

After being left out from the start against France, captain Owen Farrell returns to the England XV in one of four changes made by Borthwick, with Marcus Smith back on the bench.

 

There is also a recall for Manu Tuilagi, who makes his first appearance of the tournament at 12 in place of the injured Ollie Lawrence.

 

The final change in the backline sees Henry Arundell handed his first England start on the left wing, replacing Max Malins, while in the pack Ollie Chessum misses out through injury and is replaced by David Ribbans.

 

Amongst the subs is Dan Cole, who would join Jason Leonard, Ben Youngs and Owen Farrell in the England 100-cap club should he feature, while also making his 50th Six Nations appearance.

 

Nick Isiekwe and Joe Marchant also come into the matchday 23 for England, with Malins dropping out of the squad entirely.

 

Ireland have been England's bogey team more than any other in the Six Nations, winning 13 of their previous 23 matches against them, including both of the last two.

 

Farrell's men scored exactly 32 points in both of those victories - a 32-15 triumph at Twickenham last year and a 32-18 win in their last meeting in Dublin - but prior to that England won four consecutive matches against Ireland in all competitions.

Overall, England have won 80 of the previous 139 meetings between the two sides, losing 51 of those, while they also edge the head-to-head record in Ireland with 33 wins to Ireland's 32.

 

However, the balance of power between the two teams has been much more even in recent years, and England have only ever won twice at the Aviva Stadium, and three times in total away against Ireland in the Six Nations era.

 

Even without them having the lure of winning the Grand Slam in Dublin on St Patrick's weekend, Ireland away from home is the most difficult test in rugby right now, which England could view as either the worst possible or best possible follow-up match to last Saturday's debacle.

 

Borthwick's talented side surely cannot be as bad as they were against France again, so we do not see them being on the end of quite such a heavy defeat this time around, but it is hard to see them getting too close to their hosts this weekend either.

 

For Ireland, it is about implementing what they have done throughout the Championship. When Farrell’s charges get it right, which is rather quite often, they are very difficult to stop. There have been moments when they have been under pressure, such as against France in Round Two and in the first half of the Scotland clash, but there’s always been a feeling that they will eventually get on top.

 

Even when the Irishmen lost both of their hookers to injury at Murrayfield, which for most teams would have been catastrophic, they handled it impressively. Cian Healy was brilliant in the middle of the front-row while Josh van der Flier showed impressive accuracy with his lineout throwing. It therefore leaves you wondering where England can challenge the hosts this weekend.

 

Will they get on top in the set-piece? The breakdown? The kicking game? We can’t see how. It doesn’t mean that the Red Rose will ship another 50 points like they did against France, but right now Borthwick’s men are so far off Ireland that they won’t be able to dominate any facet.

 

Let’s be honest, Ireland are going to win comfortably, aren’t they? Andy Farrell’s men have quite rightly guarded against complacency this week and have praised the talent England contain, but they are in a different stratosphere to the visitors right now.

Everything seems to be pointing towards a perfect night for Ireland, and they will defeat the English, win the title, and claim a fourth Grand Slam in relatively comfortable fashion.

 

IRELAND 40 ENGLAND 23

 

 

 

 

Friday, February 24, 2023

Guinness Six Nations 2023 – Round 3 – Strikes, Setbacks, and Scores

We reach the half way point of the 2023 Guinness Six Nations with Ireland and Scotland showing their calls and retaining 100% records. Ireland were ruthless and unrelenting in smashing France whilst Scotland showed the Calcutta Cup win was no fluke with a comfortable win over beleaguered Wales. 

England bounced back to defeat Italy by 31-14 - the exact score accurately predicted by your correspondent


Wales sank to a new low after their record home defeat to Ireland with an another record defeat in Edinburgh. 

 

With 5 predictions correct from the first six matches - lets look forward to this weekend’s encounters.

 

Italy v Ireland

 

Ireland will be looking to march on towards a possible Grand Slam title when the Six Nations returns in Rome on Saturday.


Andy Farrell's side conquered France in a potential title decider before the fallow week, whereas hosts Italy suffered a second straight defeat at the hands of England.The odds are stacked against the home side, yet they will have taken encouraging signs from both of their defeats so far.


In Round 1, the loss to France saw them in the lead heading into the final 20 minutes, and then squander late penalties which could have nudged them back in front of the defending champions for what would have been a famous victory. A trip to Twickenham one week later was not quite as closely-fought as England avoided a banana skin thanks largely to their 19 unanswered points in the first half.


Nonetheless, the Azzurri once again looked dangerous at times and, on another day, made have had more than the two tries they managed having beaten 41 defenders over the course of the 80 minutes - by far their highest figure in any Six Nations match.


Indeed, the 28 defenders beaten in the second half alone was just one short of the previous full-match record set against Scotland last year, so there is a very real threat from Italy when they have the ball in hand.


Such encouragement from losing efforts will only last so long if they keep on losing, though, and while few will be expecting them to pick up their first victory against the world's top-ranked side on Saturday, next month's home meeting with Wales - who they memorably beat last year - looks increasingly like a Wooden Spoon decider.


From statistically the toughest test of this year's tournament to the easiest, Andy Farrell will nonetheless demand the same level of performance from his side as that which they produced against France in their last outing.


Appropriately billed as a probable title decider, with the favourites and world number one side taking on the defending Grand Slam champions and world number two, Ireland stepped up to the plate with a thrilling 32-19 victory in Dublin earlier this month.


The result was Ireland's biggest win over France in the Five or Six Nations since 1975, only the third time that they had run in four tries against Les Bleus for a bonus point in the Six Nations era, and their 13th successive home win, ending France's record 14-match winning run in the process.


That said, Garry Ringrose's try in the 71st minute gave the final score a slightly more one-sided look than the reality of the game, with both sides producing a Six Nations classic that hung in the balance for the vast majority of the 80.


Indeed, only one game in Six Nations history has seen more metres gained in total than the 1,334 that the world's top two sides managed in Dublin, with France's showdown with England in 2015 just about retaining its crown.


It is the French Six Nations crown which Farrell and his players have their eyes on now, though, and it would be an enormous shock if they did not continue their march towards it this weekend.


Ireland will be without their talismanic captain Johnny Sexton as he continues to recover from the groin injury he sustained against France last time out.

James Ryan will captain his country in the absence of Sexton, who still needs only eight points to surpass his predecessor Ronan O'Gara as the leading points scorer in Six Nations history, while Ross Byrne comes in at 10.

 

That is one of six changes made by Farrell as he rotates his squad for the trip to Rome, with Craig Casey coming in at scrum-half and Bundee Aki replacing Stuart McCloskey at inside centre.

 

The three changes in the forwards see Ronan Kelleher start at hooker, Iain Henderson feature in the second row and Jack Conan come in at number eight.

Tadhg Beirne has been ruled out for the remainder of the tournament, while Conan's introduction will see Peter O'Mahony drop to the bench and Caelan Doris shift to the blindside.

 

There are also a trio of new faces amongst the replacements, with Dan Sheehan, Ryan Baird and potential Six Nations debutant Jack Crowley all coming in to the matchday squad.

 

Italy have made three changes to their starting XV for this match, with Tommaso Allan one of those to drop to the bench as Paolo Garbisi returns at fly-half.

The Montpellier man returned from a sprained knee ligament to feature for his club last week, and is thrown straight back into the Italy side for this one. 

 

Pierre Bruno also comes back in on the wing, with Luca Morisi dropping to the bench and Tommaso Menoncello moving inside to 12.

 

The only change in the pack sees Simone Ferrari return in place of Marco Riccioni at tighthead, while on the bench Giovanni Pettinelli comes in for the injured Jake Polledri. 

 

Italy have only ever beaten Ireland once in the Six Nations, and that came a decade ago when they ran out 22-15 winners at the Stadio Olimpico.

 

The other 22 meetings have all gone the way of Ireland, including each of the last nine, and on seven of those nine occasions Ireland have put more than 45 points on the board.

 

That was true when they met at the Aviva Stadium last year too as Farrell's men ran in nine tries en route to a 57-6 triumph, while their last visit to Rome saw them win 48-10 in 2021.

 

Across their all-time history, Ireland have won 30 of the 34 meetings, with Italy taking the remaining four.

 

With all of the attacking talent on show, this should be an entertaining game - unless, of course, you are an Italy fan. The home side should take confidence from elements of their showings against France and England, but Ireland are another step up from those two again and, unlike on week one, their opponents have now had time to gel and get accustomed to each other.

 

Italy are not a team anyone will risk underestimating this year, but Saturday's match should be a fairly straightforward win for the favourites.

 

Italy 10-48 Ireland

 

 

Wales v England

 

It’s been a tumultuous week in Wales with the sword of Damocles being held over the Worst Run Union with the nuclear option of a players strike risking the postponement of the game against England. Only last minute back peddling and intense discussions have found a temporary solution to the players grievances and the game is now formally back on.

 

It was sad to be in this situation but we’ve been here before. In 2019, Wales Six Nations campaign was massively disrupted by the announcement of team mergers with “Project Reset”. Now just 4 years later - nothing has been learned and the same old narrow self interests exist to tarnish and damage the game in Wales.

 

The tumult and turmoil off the pitch in Welsh rugby has so far been mirrored on it in the Six Nations, though, with Warren Gatland's side losing their opening two matches, whereas England picked up their first win of the Steve Borthwick era at the expense of Italy last time out.

 

Branded a "laughing stock" by their own captain Ken Owens due to the disarray behind the scenes at the WRU of late, Wales will hope to be able to shift their focus firmly back to the rugby when they welcome their neighbours England to the Principality Stadium.

 

Allegations of sexism, racism and misogyny within Welsh rugby's governing body had already seen Gatland's second stint as boss get off to an inauspicious start, before the payment row between the WRU and the players became the latest off-field soap opera to overshadow a proud nation's national sport.

 

With both issues now having been solved or at least addressed, Gatland will be desperate to focus on matters on the pitch, with his side not faring too well on that front either.

 

Had the threatened strike gone ahead then Wales would have been left with zero points after three games, with the 2021 Grand Slam champions not just winless so far, but also pointless having failed to pick up a bonus point in either match.

 

That leaves them propping up the table after two games, with the fewest points scored, the most points against, the fewest tries scored and the joint-most tries conceded in this year's competition so far.

 

The fact that they are playing this game means that they will at least have the chance to improve those worrying statistics, although the away game against Italy in Rome next up is already looming large as a possible Wooden Spoon decider.

 

Defeat to Ireland on the opening weekend was largely expected, even factoring in the return of the competition's most successful coach in Gatland, but their loss to Scotland last time out would have stung particularly badly.

 

Wales had snuffed out positive Scottish starts to the Six Nations in both of the previous two years under Wayne Pivac, but this time around they succumbed to their biggest-ever Test defeat at the hands of their northern neighbours.

 

Owens scored Wales' only try as they were well beaten and, while two Scottish tries in the final 10 minutes added gloss to the eventual 35-7 scoreline for the hosts, it was a miserable Murrayfield experience for the visitors as they opened a Six Nations campaign with back-to-back defeats for the first time since 2007.

 

In addition to shipping points too freely, Wales have also been particularly wasteful in attack, averaging less than one point per entry into the 22 in both of their games so far.

 

On the bright side, they face an English team that has looked alarmingly open in defence and susceptible to teams running at them with the ball in hand.

 

Duhan van der Merwe's stunning solo try in the defeat to Scotland at Twickenham in Round 1 was the clearest example of this, but England also missed a whopping 41 tackles in their win over Italy last time out - their highest-ever tally in a Six Nations match.

 

New defence coach Kevin Sinfield has no doubt been working overtime on that issue during the two-week break between matches, but head coach Steve Borthwick does at least have a first win under his belt courtesy of that bonus-point 34-14 home triumph over a potential banana skin in Italy.

 

Most of the damage was done in the first half as England scored 19 unanswered points before the interval, and while Borthwick will be the first to admit that there is more to come from his side, they are at least now on the board in the Six Nations and sit third - above defending champions France - heading into game three.

 

England head coach Steve Borthwick has made one change to his starting line-up that downed Italy 31-14 last time out, with Anthony Watson starting on the wing while Courtney Lawes is set to make his international return off the bench.

 

Towering full-back Freddie Steward retains his place in the back-three, as does Max Malins, with Watson looking to add some X-factor on the left wing.

 

Ollie Lawrence is rewarded with another start after a blockbuster performance against Italy and continues his midfield partnership with the experienced Henry Slade.

 

Skipper Owen Farrell is preferred to Marcus Smith at fly-half again the week and will look to build on his half-back combinations with Jack van Poortvliet.

 

There are no changes to the forward pack, with Alex Dombrandt continuing at number eight alongside Lewis Ludlam and Jack Willis, who shone against Italy in the back-row.

 

Ollie Chessum gets another start alongside the rock-solid Maro Itoje in the second-row while Ellis Genge, Jamie George and Kyle Sinckler look to perform in another good front-row performance.

 

Mako Vunipola and Dan Cole join hooker Jack Walker as front-row options for Borthwick, whilst both Lawes and Ben Curry come onto the bench as attractive forward replacements.

 

Smith remains on the bench this week alongside scrum-half Alex Mitchell and the exciting Henry Arundell for the Cardiff Test.

 

Wales have brought back several experienced players for their Six Nations game against England with 9 changes to the team who failed in Murrayfield.

 

Warren Gatland has selected an experienced outfit with Leigh Halfpenny, Taulupe Faletau, Justin Tipuric and Alun Wyn Jones returning to the starting XV.

 

Louis Rees-Zammit is also back after recovering from injury and he partners Halfpenny and Josh Adams in the back three.

 

I am excited by his choice of centre combination as Joe Hawkins is joined by Mason Grady, who is making his Test debut. Grady is a superb talent following his brother Cory Allen to win a test cap. 

 

At half-back, Dan Biggar has correctly been dropped to the bench, which means Owen Williams comes in and is alongside Tomos Williams. Biggar has been so poor in the past two matches he had to go. Picking Owen Williams is a real gamble though as none of his previous 3 caps has been at outside half.

 

Up front, Wales have gone for the front five which started their first Six Nations clash against Ireland as Ken Owens is partnered by Gareth Thomas and Tomas Francis in the front-row, while Adam Beard and Jones are at lock.

 

The back row sees Christ Tshiunza continue at blindside after impressing against Scotland, but there is no Jac Morgan, who is out of the 23.

 

Tipuric takes his place on the openside and Faletau is back at number eight, while Tommy Reffell provides back-row cover on the bench.

 

Reffell is joined among the replacements by Bradley Roberts, Rhys Carre, Dillon Lewis, Dafydd Jenkins, Kieran Hardy, Biggar and Nick Tompkins.

 

Another victory over Wales this weekend would keep their hopes alive of ending Borthwick's maiden campaign with the trophy, particularly with matches against the two pre-tournament favourites France and Ireland to finish their campaign.

 

It would take some effort to topple the world's top-two ranked sides in succession, particularly with their final match coming away to Ireland in Dublin, but victory this weekend would at least keep them in the mix heading into the second week off.

 

Victories in Cardiff have not been easy to come by for England in recent years, though, so even with Wales embroiled in so many off-field troubles, Saturday's contest will be far from straightforward for Borthwick's men.

 

England are looking for their first win in Cardiff since 2017, having lost on their two visits to the Principality Stadium - the most recent of which saw them well beaten 40-24.

 

Eddie Jones's side did get revenge for that loss by winning 23-19 at Twickenham last season, though, when Alex Dombrandt scored the match-winning try.

 

In total, England have won 15 of the 23 Six Nations meetings between the two sides, but at the Principality Stadium they have only won six of their 14 visits, losing the other eight.

 

Across their all-time head-to-head record, England edge the victories 66 to 60, with 12 draws in that time too.

 

We may be two games into this season's tournament, but major question marks still hang over both teams. Will Wales improve now that the off-field issues are hopefully behind them? Can England's victory over Italy be used as a true measuring stick?

 

Wales winger Rees-Zammit will be licking his lips at some of England's defending so far in this tournament and he could do some damage on Saturday, but it is also impossible to ignore the fact that Wales are bottom of the pile in just about every scoring stat which matters so far.

 

It should be a great tussle between the two old rivals, but ultimately I am backing England to come out on top.

 

Wales 24 England 31

 

France v Scotland

 

Gregor Townsend’s Scottish charges have been the surprise package of the Six Nations so far. It shouldn’t be the case, considering the talent they have in the squad, but their incredible ability to disappoint when backed to perform has been the bane of Scottish rugby. 

 

It appeared as though that would once again rear its ugly head in the opening round against England but, as the game reached its crucial stages, there was a different look to the team.

 

They showed remarkable composure to soak up the pressure and then land the killer blow with a fabulous team score, resulting in a 29-23 triumph. At the final whistle there were joyous scenes but it was certainly more muted this year, knowing that they have not backed up these big results in the past. There seems to have been a positive mentality shift within the squad and that was demonstrated by their dismantling of Wales a week later.

 

Nevertheless, those challenges pale in comparison to what awaits in Paris this weekend. France may not be at the level they were last year, but they still have the power and the talent to blow Scotland away on Sunday. The task facing the Bravehearts is pretty daunting. France have won 5 of their last 6 matches and their 10 home matches. 


More significantly – they have won 12 of their last 13 home matches against Scotland but Scotland did win their last away match against France. Scotland were superb in their 29-23 win over England in round one. They were arguably even better, thrashing Wales 35-7 in round two. While the match was tight for large periods, Scotland always looked in control and that dominance came to the fore in the final 20 minutes.

 

It will be a significant test for the visitors but, if they can come through this, Townsend’s charges can dare to dream of a first Six Nations title and, potentially, a Grand Slam.

 

While Scotland look a better side this year, they are also boosted by the form of the French, who have gradually declined since their Grand Slam success last year. Although they won all three Autumn Nations Series encounters in 2022, none of the performances were exactly convincing. All good sides can have dips so it did not leave us concerned, but their efforts so far in the 2023 Six Nations certainly has.

 

France are fourth on the Six Nations table with one win and one defeat. As the defending champions this is basically a final if they want to retain any hope of defending the Six Nations.

 

While France are still a very strong side, they have not been at their best recently. Ranked No.2 in the world behind Ireland, France will still hope they can win their remaining games and someone can beat Ireland.

 

Obviously, discipline was an issue against Italy and that disrupted their game, but they aren’t quite getting the purchase in either set-piece or carry at the moment. They almost look ‘underpowered’, which is odd to say about a XV full of quality athletes, and are therefore unable to dominate the gain line. There is still plenty of time to go until the World Cup but they need to start putting the pieces in place ahead of their home tournament. 

 

They were better against Ireland but it always felt like Andy Farrell’s men were in control, despite the odd moments of brilliance from the likes of Damian Penaud and Antoine Dupont. It is not time to panic for Les Bleus – far from it – but now would be a good moment for them to get it together and show their supporters they are moving in the right direction. If not, and Scotland claim a victory in Paris, the pressure will begin to ramp up.

 

There is plenty of history behind this fixture, dating back to Scotland and France’s first encounter in 1910 (a 27 – 0 win for the dark blues at Inverleith) with their first clash in Paris coming a year later (a 16 – 15 triumph for Les Bleus. This match will be the 100th meeting of the Auld Alliance. 

 

France definitely hold the advantage with 57 wins to Scotland’s 39 – plus 3 draws. It’s notable that much of the Scots’ success was front-loaded, with 31 of their triumphs arriving in the amateur era.

 

Since 2016 though, Scotland have managed 5 wins against the French (from 10 attempts). That’s the same number of victories that they had managed in the previous 26 years (28 matches). Significantly, four of those successes have arrived during the Townsend era.

 

Townsend makes juts one change to the team, that humiliated Wales. Flanker Hamish Watson replaces Luke Crosbie. Watson is back to full fitness after a concussion against New Zealand.

 

Crosbie is not on the bench, with Sam Skinner drafted in as one of six forward replacements - and that means no place in the 23 for Chris Harris.

 

Scrum-half Ali Price returns to the matchday squad having missed out on the wins against England and Wales.

Defending champions France beat Italy in their opener but were then defeated by Ireland in round two of the championship.

 

Scotland are unchanged in the back division once more with Ben White and Finn Russell poised to continue at half-back.

Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones resume their centre partnership while Stuart Hogg has recovered from a head injury assessment following the victory over Wales to start at full-back.

 

The returning Watson will line up with captain Jamie Ritchie and Matt Fagerson in the back row.

 

The France team is not available as we go to press but Jonathan Danty could return for France after missing the first two rounds of the tournament due to injury. France will be without Uini Atonio, who has been three weeks for an illegal tackle during the defeat to Ireland last time out.

 

It feels like there are almost two different French sides playing. On one hand, there is the loose, expansive team that can supply tries from anywhere, such as the worldie by Damian Penaud off the back of one loose kick by Ireland in Dublin. If the French identify a disjointed opposition line and they think it’s on then they will attack from anywhere – 23 offloads (the most in this year’s Six Nations) attest to that.

 

On the other hand, there is the Shaun Edwards coached, none shall pass (except maybe the Irish), regimented defence built on hard work rather than talent that is undoubtedly the foundation of the side’s philosophy. When they have possession if they don’t like the look of the opposition defence; if their structure isn’t in place; if they’ve gone three phases and not progressed – the ball will be put in the air and there is an expectation that their own defensive prowess can win the ball back in a more advantageous position or unstructured situation.

 

France are superb at home and Scotland are in great form. This should be a cracking battle, but while I believe France will have enough for the win, I feel that Scotland can get within a single score but not enough to triumph.

 

France 27 Scotland 19